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Updated by Malcolm Riddell on Jul 13, 2018
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Trade

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US tariff increases: How will they impact developing countries?

Friday last week saw the entry into force of the punitive tariffs on steel and aluminium imports agreed by the United States. During the first year of Donald Trump’s presidency, US trade policy, while characterised by aggressive rhetoric, was barely followed up with any actions.

Currency unions mean more trade, but not for everyone | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal

Currency unions usually go hand in hand with deeper economic integration. But does that automatically mean more international trade? This column shows that since the end of WWII, currency unions have on average been associated with 40% more trade between member countries. The ‘thin’ relationships between countries who do not trade much with each other benefit the most from

Learning by exporting: Japanese firm-level evidence | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal

‘Learning by exporting’ refers to productivity gains experienced by firms after they commence exporting. Such gains are argued to be due to access to new knowledge and resources. This column explores some of the preconditions for learning-by-exporting effects, using data on the overseas activities and affiliations of Japanese firms. Firms that enter markets in which they don’t

Learning by exporting in global value chains | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal

Participation in global value chains provides emerging economies with opportunities for fast-track development and technological upgrading. This column argues that countries need to diversify their exports into knowledge-intensive products and services that generate high value added to make the most out of learning by exporting. Countries that specialise in standardised,

Trade elasticities, heterogeneity, and optimal tariffs

Applying our estimates to trade and tariff data worldwide, we show that heterogeneous export supply elasticities provide new avenues for identification. We demonstrate statistically positive and persistent links between non-cooperative optimal tariffs and applied tariffs worldwide.

We estimate how a rise in uncertainty about future tariff rates impacts firm decisions to enter into and exit from export markets. We find that Chinese firms are less likely to enter new foreign markets and more likely to exit from established foreign markets when their products are subject to increased trade policy uncertainty. Our analysis is based on the phenomenon of “tariff echoing” – after a tariff hike in one country, another country is likely to raise its tariff on the same product. Overall, we find that if there had been no trade policy uncertainty created by the use of contingent tariffs, Chinese entry into foreign markets would have been roughly 2% higher per year.

Trade war trinity: analysis of global consequences | Bruegel

Analysis of the long-term impact of the trade war and its three key players: EU, US, and China.